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Third Working Paper

Why PBS/MPS?

A public guide to the requirements, alternatives, objections, and proof conditions

Research status: Candidate institutional architecture. Conceptually developed, but not yet proven operationally, economically, legally, or at production scale.
Research notice. This page explains the argument in plain language. It does not claim that PBS/MPS has regulatory approval, legal enforceability in a specific implementation, peer-reviewed validation, or production-scale viability.
Overview

The idea in one sentence

PBS/MPS is a proposed way to carry evidence of a person's contribution through four connected stages: document the contribution, measure the resulting performance, estimate attributable value, and connect that value to a legally valid form of payment or participation.

Central principle

The paper's central point is deliberately cautious: a coherent idea is not automatically a workable or superior system. PBS/MPS should earn stronger claims only through comparison, adversarial testing, bounded pilots, and independent replication.

The design problem

The problem the paper addresses

Modern value is often created by many people over time. Knowledge, data, judgment, creative work, technical improvements, and operational expertise can enter products, workflows, datasets, and AI systems. Those contributions may continue producing value after the original contributor has left the organization or no longer participates.

Existing institutions can handle corporate ownership and some recognized forms of intellectual property. They are often less equipped to preserve a detailed contribution record, connect that contribution to later outcomes, and carry a valid entitlement across organizations and over time.

The paper calls this the intangible-assets dilemma. It does not argue that every idea should become property or that every contribution should be priced. Its claim is narrower. A provenance-based system may be worth considering when a contribution is identifiable, material, persistent, and connected to measurable downstream value.

End-to-end integrity

The chain that must remain intact

A complete contribution-to-payment system needs every link below:

  1. A person or group produces knowledge, data, judgment, expression, feedback, or a process improvement.
  2. The contribution is captured in an identifiable form.
  3. The contribution enters a model, dataset, product, process, or workflow.
  4. The downstream system produces a measurable result.
  5. Evidence estimates whether and how the contribution affected that result.
  6. A valid contract or law recognizes an entitlement.
  7. A payment, royalty, license right, ownership interest, or PBS instrument carries that entitlement.
  8. Privacy, correction, appeal, withdrawal, reuse, expiration, and disputes are governed by explicit procedures.
Why every link matters

If one link fails, the system is incomplete. Provenance without performance does not establish value. Performance without provenance lacks contribution history. Attribution without a legal entitlement does not create a right. A right without payment infrastructure may not be executed. A market without privacy, due process, and anti-manipulation controls may create more harm than benefit.

Architecture

What PBS/MPS proposes

01

Provenance Ledger

The ledger preserves evidence of who contributed what, when, and in what context. The purpose is not merely recordkeeping. The record must be reliable enough to support review, correction, audit, and later analysis.

02

Performance Oracle

The oracle supplies domain-appropriate evidence of outcomes. Different domains require different measures. A useful metric must reflect a result that affected parties and domain experts consider meaningful, rather than relying only on credentials, reputation, or market price.

03

Contribution Decomposition & Royalty Flow

This layer asks how documented contributions relate to measured outcomes. It must account for joint work, interaction effects, persistence over time, uncertainty, and alternative causal assumptions. Any resulting allocation then needs to be translated into an enforceable economic arrangement.

04

Exchange or payment infrastructure

An exchange is not automatically required. Depending on the implementation, the result could be a contractual royalty, license payment, revenue share, cooperative interest, security, statutory entitlement, or another recognized structure. If exchange infrastructure is used, it sits around the analytical core and handles listing, transfer, settlement, reporting, and auditability.

Decision criteria

Ten requirements any adequate solution should meet

The paper does not assume PBS/MPS is the answer. It first asks what any solution must do:

  1. Persistent provenance: preserve origin, transformation, custody, and derivative relationships.
  2. Identity and evidence verification: separate supported claims from self-assertion.
  3. Joint-contribution representation: handle teams, prior work, shared inputs, and inseparable contributions without false precision.
  4. Measurable performance: connect contributions to relevant outcomes.
  5. Uncertainty-aware attribution: disclose confidence, approximation error, model sensitivity, and causal ambiguity.
  6. Legal enforceability: connect evidence to a valid right or obligation.
  7. Payment or market infrastructure: execute the entitlement without requiring speculative trading when a simpler payment method is enough.
  8. Privacy and due process: provide data minimization, access control, correction, appeal, and appropriate deletion or revocation.
  9. Incentive compatibility and anti-gaming: reward genuine quality while limiting collusion, metric gaming, contribution stuffing, and oracle capture.
  10. Acceptable administrative cost: leave positive value after verification, computation, compliance, disputes, governance, storage, and payment.

A simpler alternative should be preferred whenever it meets these requirements more cheaply, fairly, or reliably.

Comparative test

Alternatives PBS/MPS must beat or complement

The paper compares PBS/MPS with existing and plausible approaches, including:

  • conventional intellectual-property licensing;
  • employment and work-for-hire agreements;
  • collective or sectoral bargaining;
  • data trusts and cooperatives;
  • statutory AI-training royalties;
  • compulsory licensing;
  • expanded copyright or patent protection;
  • profit sharing and employee equity;
  • platform cooperatives;
  • collective rights organizations;
  • tokenized IP without contribution decomposition; and
  • taxation and redistribution.

These alternatives have real strengths. Licensing may be best when a clearly recognized IP right already exists. Collective bargaining may avoid costly and intrusive individual measurement. Profit sharing may be simpler within one firm. Data trusts may provide stronger collective governance. Taxation may address economy-wide concentration without tracing individual contributions.

The actual comparative claim

PBS/MPS is potentially distinctive only where four functions need to operate together: persistent provenance, performance evidence, contribution decomposition, and durable economic participation. Even there, the system must demonstrate that integration produces more value than complexity.

Adversarial review

The strongest objections

Contribution inflation

People may exaggerate involvement or divide ordinary work into excessive micro-contributions. Safeguards include materiality thresholds, independent evidence, duplicate detection, and penalties for deliberate misrepresentation.

Tacit or undocumented knowledge

Important expertise may not be capturable in a reliable record. Structured attestations may help, but weak evidence must not be converted into false precision. Some domains may simply be unsuitable.

Joint work and unstable attribution

Team output may be genuinely inseparable. A responsible design must permit team-level or coalition-level allocation and disclose when results change materially under reasonable alternative models.

Oracle capture and metric gaming

Participants may optimize the metric instead of the real outcome, or powerful parties may control the measurement system. Multi-source validation, independent audits, holdout tests, anomaly detection, and governance separation are required.

Workplace surveillance

Contribution tracking can become continuous monitoring. The framework should use data minimization, purpose limitation, worker-controlled records, and event-based evidence. It should reject implementations that require disproportionate surveillance.

Privacy, correction, and deletion

Permanent records can conflict with legitimate rights to correct, restrict, or delete data. Possible safeguards include off-chain sensitive records, revocable permissions, append-only corrections, and independent appeal.

Administrative cost

Verification, computation, compliance, and disputes may consume the value being distributed. All-in cost must be measured. Low-value domains may require collective allocation, thresholds, a simpler institution, or no new right.

Speculation

A tradeable instrument may develop a market price disconnected from contribution evidence. Entitlement value and secondary-market price must be reported separately. Some implementations may require transfer limits, suitability rules, circuit breakers, or non-tradeable royalty claims.

Refusal principle

When the system should not be used

PBS/MPS should be rejected or narrowed for a domain when:

  • provenance cannot meet a minimum evidence standard;
  • meaningful performance cannot be observed;
  • attribution changes materially under reasonable models;
  • no valid or socially defensible entitlement exists;
  • privacy costs are disproportionate;
  • manipulation cannot be detected reliably;
  • administration consumes too much of the value; or
  • a simpler alternative performs just as well or better.

Possible substitutes include ordinary licensing, collective bargaining, flat royalties, profit sharing, cooperatives, taxation, or no additional economic right.

Empirical burden

What would count as proof?

The paper proposes proof conditions rather than relying on persuasive language.

Provenance integrity

Independent auditors should be able to reconstruct contribution chains, while missing evidence, duplicate claims, false claims, and disputes are measured.

Performance validity

The chosen metrics should correlate with outcomes that affected parties and domain experts accept as relevant, including out-of-sample validation and drift testing.

Attribution robustness

Allocations should remain reasonably stable across defensible models, counterfactuals, metrics, and random seeds. Confidence intervals and sensitivity ranges should be public.

Manipulation resistance

Red teams should test collusion, synthetic contributions, identity attacks, oracle manipulation, and strategic fragmentation.

Scalability

Load tests should measure throughput, latency, storage, computation, reconciliation, audit effort, and cost as the number of records and contributors grows.

Privacy and due process

A data-protection impact assessment should test whether minimum necessary data can support attribution. Appeals, reversals, resolution time, and repeat disputes should be tracked.

Economic viability

Net contributor benefit must remain positive after all verification, compute, compliance, dispute, payment, and governance costs.

Legal operability

The selected right and obligation must be defined in counsel-reviewed agreements or applicable law, and tested against termination, bankruptcy, audit, and enforcement scenarios.

Comparative superiority

PBS/MPS should be tested against the strongest credible alternative under the same participants, value pool, and outcome period where feasible.

Replication

An independent operator or second site should reproduce the result before claims are generalized to another domain.

Evidence-based language

The claim ladder

Public claims should match the highest level actually supported by evidence:

Level 0 — Specified: architecture, data, models, rights, and failure conditions are defined.
Level 1 — Prototype viable: an end-to-end implementation works on bounded test data.
Level 2 — Pilot credible: real participants and outcomes are handled with measured error, privacy, disputes, and cost.
Level 3 — Comparatively preferable: the system materially outperforms a credible alternative.
Level 4 — Replicated: independent operators reproduce the result.
Level 5 — Production viable: the system sustains scale, adversarial pressure, compliance, governance integrity, and positive net economics over time.
Language discipline

Terms such as unique solution, demonstrably viable, and production-ready belong at Levels 3 through 5, not at the conceptual stage.

Next empirical step

A responsible pilot

The paper recommends a bounded pilot designed to falsify the framework, not a general market launch:

  1. Pre-register the test. Select a narrow contribution type, a comparator, metrics, attribution models, privacy rules, dispute procedures, cost accounting, and stop conditions.
  2. Run in shadow mode. Calculate provenance, performance, and allocation without binding economic consequences. Compare results with expert review and conventional contractual allocation.
  3. Use a capped payment pool. Introduce limited real payments or royalties without unrestricted secondary speculation.
  4. Invite adversarial testing. Independent teams attack identity, provenance, oracle inputs, attribution, and governance.
  5. Apply the decision rule. Continue only if the system materially beats the comparator and triggers no stop condition.
  6. Replicate. Repeat under an independent operator or at a second site before expanding.
Conclusion

Bottom line

PBS/MPS is not presented in this paper as an inevitable or proven answer. It is presented as a serious candidate for problems that require provenance, performance evidence, uncertain joint attribution, and durable economic participation to work together.

Its strongest contribution is not a declaration of success. It is a testable standard for deciding when the framework deserves to proceed, when it should be combined with simpler institutions, and when it should be rejected.

Third working paper

Read the complete paper

The full working paper includes the detailed alternatives matrices, failure conditions, proof dimensions, pilot design, decision rule, and research-status notice.

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